(Un)breakable records
My plan for the July 4th weekend is to have no plan. I'm staying indoors (with company) as much as possible and obsessively scanning ALL my old college photos and catching up on emails and paying bills and doing pushups and crunches and eating lots of fruit and watching the Subway Series and laughing at the losers who continue to boo A-Rod. I have a few games planned for the next few weeks, including one at a stadium I've only been to once before. But anyway...
Last month, my friend Sean suggested that I write an entry about baseball records--about which ones might someday be broken and which ones won't--and the time has come. We're halfway through the season. Several teams have played exactly 81 games. It's a convenient time to think about numbers. Adam Dunn struck out three more times yesterday against Cleveland, giving him 94 for the season. Will he break his own record of 195? Multiply 94 by two...nope. But someone else will someday.
Here are five other records that WILL be broken:
1) Earl Webb's single-season record of 67 doubles. I'm shocked that this record has stood since 1931. Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, and David Ortiz could all shatter the mark if they were to put their egos aside and bunt down the third base line twice per week. Realistically, it'll take a gap-hitter like Todd Helton to get it done.
2) Sean Green's single-game record of 19 total bases. It's pretty special to hit four homers, a double, and a single in one game--don't get me wrong--but SOMEday, someone's gonna hit five homers in one game. Just you wait and see.
3) Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak. I realize that Pete Rose's 44-gamer in 1978 is the only streak to top 40 games since DiMaggio accomplished the feat in 1941, but other guys have come close: Paul Molitor, Jimmy Rollins...even Benito Santiago. Come on, if a rookie catcher can hit in 34 straight, you don't think someone like Ichiro can make Heinz proud?
4) Mariano Rivera's career saves record of ___. Lee Smith currently holds the record with 478. Trevor Hoffman (456) will pass Lee Smith, Mariano (397) will pass Trevor, and Jonathan Papelbon (24) or some other young stud like Francisco Rodriguez (78) or Chad Cordero (75) or Huston Street (41) or Bobby Jenks (31) or Ambiorix Burgos (15) will blow them all away. Guys are closing at a younger age than ever before. Don't be surprised if the record reaches 600 or 700 in the next half-century.
5) Willie Wilson's single-season record of 705 at-bats. Ichiro had 704 in 2004. Juan Samuel had 701 in 1984. Alfonso Soriano missed six games in 2002 and still had 696. It's a meaningless record reserved for undisciplined leadoff hitters, but I still like it.
And now, five records that will NEVER be broken:
1) Cy Young's career record of 749 complete games. It would now take a pitcher 21 years just to START that many games. Young's records for wins (511) and innings pitched (7,356) also appear to be safe, assuming Roger Clemens doesn't come out of retirement eight more times.
2) The 1899 Cleveland Spiders' all-time worst .149 winning percentage. I wish announcers would stop labeling the 1962 Mets as the worst team ever. They weren't. Sixty-three years earlier, the Spiders went 20-134. Even if today's Triple-A Omaha Royals got transplanted into the Major Leagues, they'd do better.
3) Randy Hundley's single-season record of 160 games caught. The game has changed since 1968. Pitchers don't pitch 300 innings, and catchers don't catch every game.
4) Sam Crawford's career record of 51 inside-the-park homers. It's another example of how the game has changed. Do you know how many of Hank Aaron's 755 career homers were inside-the-parkers? Here's a hint: one.
5) Quickest nine-inning game in Major League history: 51 minutes. It happened on September 28, 1919. The Giants beat the Phillies, 6-1. Baseball was so much better without QuesTec.
Cool entry. I know this is vague, but I think one pitcher has thrown back to back no hitters. Can anyone confirm this for me? If it is true, then that would be the hardest record to break because a pitcher would have to throw three consecutive no hitters.
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great list zack, very fun to read
i keep having these awful snagging and auto collecting dreams where i leave my glove home or my cards home or dont have a sharpie, oy vey
question-have you ever been thrown out of a stadium??
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hey zack, hows it going man?? long time no talk!
i can confidently say that you are famous now lol...ever since your documentary at shea/sportsnet ny (which i saw and tivoed on directv) your comments have quietly gone up from 8-12 per entry to 30+ lol....just remember who emailed you over three years ago ;-) lol
anyways, about the records, i think that nolan ryans career strikeouts (5714 or something) is just as unbreakable as cy youngs complete games....and how about a quirky record, like matsui hitting a homerun in his frist pitch of the season three years in a row??? no one had even done it twice before him!
but i also wanted to tell you about my night at Pro Player vs the red sox last night (i refuse to call it dolphins stadium)...i still hate the make up of that place, gates only open 1.5 hours before gameitme, cant get down onto the field AT ALL AT ANY TIMES unless you have an $80 ticket only season ticket holders can buy (but one of my friends has one so i spend half my games down there) and you cant get into the first 6 rows spanning all of behind home plate and the dugout once BP is over (ushers sit right there)...sorry for the rant and rave again, but im averaginy prolly only 2-3 balls this year in about 10 games, its frustrating...anyways about last night
BALL #1: some little kid on the field helping the sox take bp throws me a ball, so i ask how he got out there, if his dad was a player, and he says "YEA", i go "WHO", he says "SCHILL", i say "SICK"
BALL #2: manny ramirez punches an opposite field shot to RF and the ball bounces off of the rubberized warning track, and i catch it after it bounces in the seats (now, later in bp when i was in my friends field level seats. mr. manny was warming up and came over to sign a few autographs in that section...i pulled out the ball he had earlier hit, and he took it and signed it right below the MLB logo on that big space!! yea, manny ramirez)
BALL #3: now, i know you dont count these as game used, but if i see the ball pitched and then directly make its way to me and i know how it was used, im gonna count it as game used...i guess this pertains to my fourth ball more; so im sititng first row along the field level (LF line) and coco crisp hits a foul ball grounder that the third base coach for the sox (demarlo hale??) picks up and tosses to me and my friend, and we both reach for it so it drops right onto the field, and the security guard sitting right there picked it up and handed it to me (YEA, i counted that as a game used ball)
BALL #4: manny ramirez already had one dinger, david ortiz had two, and papi steps up for his 4th AB of the night....he launches an opposite field shot that everyone thought was gone and it hit the top of the marlins teal scoreboard in left, bouncing onto the field...ortiz makes it to second and the ball makes it to miguel cabrera (my favorite player) at third after the relay throw...now the pitcher already had a new ball in his glove and miguel just turned around, i stood up and waved my arms wildly, and wound up with a david ortiz double (given to me by my favorite player)....AND AGAIN YEA, i watched the ball and it was coutned as game used
BALL #5: after the game i got the home plate ump to give me a ball from his pouch (yea it sounds bad...) as he walked off the field...now, we all know this ball was probably used at some time but i never never count these as game used...just as i havent in the past...i didnt see it pitched, how it was used, etc....therefore, just another baseball (192 since '03)
so zack, i just wanted to share my night with you, i still check up on your site everyday and reall enjoy reading your posts...keep doing what your doign!! come down to the Pro one day, good luck!
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NICK-
Thank you. And you're right. Johnny Vander Meer threw back-to-back no-hitters in 1938. I thought about using that for this entry (as well as LOTS of other records), but I wanted to keep it brief and went with these other records instead.
JONELI-
Thanks. Glad you liked it. I used to have snagging dreams ALL the time, and they were usually bad. Usually, I'd get lost on the way to the ballpark, and then I'd be late, and then it'd start drizzling, and then the whole configuration of the stadium would change, and then I'd realize that I forgot my hats, and then I suddenly wouldn't have any athletic ability and I'd drop balls that came right to me. So don't freak out. You're not alone.
:-)
I've been ejected from Shea Stadium four times, but I've made peace with the supervisors who were responsible. In fact, two of them now let me sit wherever I want.
HOCKEY GUY!
Good to hear from you again. Where ya been? I think Nolan's strikeout record is much more breakable than Cy Young's complete games. Every year or two, another pitcher approaches 3,000 strikeouts, and that's more than half of what Nolan achieved. But when's the last time a pitcher reached 375 complete games? Or even 300? Or even 200? I didn't know that first-pitch stat for Matsui. I like it.
Feel free to rant anytime. I remember all the stuff you told me about the Marlins' home. I realize that just because the attendance is often below 10,000, things are not necessarily any easier.
I am sooooo jealous that you got a ball AND an autograph from Manny. My lord. You got some really cool balls. I'm very impressed. The Papi double is fantastic. I've only gotten one double in my life. It was hit by Dave Justice at SkyDome and bounced over the right field wall, and I used my glove trick. Don't feel bad about counting balls # 3 and 4 as gamers. We all have our own methods of documentation, so if that feels right, then stick with it.
I'm glad to know that you've been keeping up with the blog, even though you haven't been commenting as much. Don't be a stranger.
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T think #3 on the unbreakable list can be broken.
Chad
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jimmy-brave comment on zack's last post
It said
Wow are you all dumb?!
the jays will win the world series easily.
I am going to remember that.come october
-kaylee
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Ramones-do you know any good ballthrowers/signers on the red sox?
-kaylee
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Okay, Chad. Explain how you think it could be broken. Do you really think a manager (in this overprotective era) would allow his catcher to play in THAT many games? I know it's mathematically possible, but I just don't think it'll ever happen again.
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the thing with catchers is that a team plays 162 games in 180 days. thats 18 days off over 6 months. 3 days a month they can just kick back and relax and enjoy life and the family.
then you have day games after night games, extra innings games, long 15-13 pitching challenged games, etc....
the problem is is that even though there are guys that are tough behind the plate, it's so hard to go an entire season without getting nicked up a bit. fouls of the thumb, shoulder, arm, wherever, it just hurts to play sometimes.
i could see a guy like piazza maybe catching 100 games and then playing 60 at DH or so, but thats only 100 games at catcher.
the physical toll that sqauting behind the plate takes on a person is enormous. thats why you never see any more catchers playing more than 10 years...pudge is already beginning to play first, todd hundley at the end of his career moved to 1st and left field, biggio went to second after a few years
it just goes to show how much the game has changed over even the last 30-40 years. and quite frankly, in 20 years catchers might be only getting 75 games behind the plate just due to how physical the position is
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and nolan ryan's strikeout record isnt being passed anytime soon.
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That was a brilliant explanation of catching. Thank you.
I agree about Ryan's record. Randy Johnson would have to pitch 'til he's 50 to get there, and I don't see anyone else coming along who's likely to make a serious run. My point is that guys will get MUCH closer to Ryan than they will to Cy Young's 749 complete games.
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You knew I was going to ask this:
What do you think about Ripken's consecutive games record? Breakable? In our lifetime? Certainly not by a shortstop...
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Joneli- I had a similar dream that I went to a game without a glove, but I ended up with 3 balls weird.
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SHEFFRO-
First of all, thanks (again) for the inspiration. Secondly, Ripken's record is so safe that I didn't even bother mentioning it. Tejada's got nuthin'.
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Jimmy-It is amazing how the jays are staying in the hunt they are 1 game behind the yanks for second.....but 5 behind my red sox
Ramones-i need a favor name me some nice guys on the red sox?
-kaylee
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hey im back this whole weekend i got 24 autographed cards and 2 balls on sweetspots and 2 balls from bp..my second sweetspot was from johan santana he was in the loading dock parking lot and the metrodome and i was the only one there so i threw him a ball and signed it perfect on the sweet spot...it was a fun trip im from milwaukee and i went to minneapolis so it was really fun and id do it again..next year i think our trip is going to be at pnc park..next game is tomorrow..brewers vs. cinci at miller park... my goal: Felipe lopez on 2 cards, adam dunn and bronson arroyo on two balls..and ryan freel on a card..ill let everyone know how i did tomorrow or wednesday
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Zack-
Might be going to the Seattle game after the all-star break, just wanna know all the nice guys on the Mariners and want to know if Ichiro and Sexson sign autos.
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jimmy-I got Sexson's auto when he was playing with Arizona.That was a year or two ago though.jays win?
-kaylee
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I hope they do cause Yanks gonna lose and Sox lost its 2-1 Rangers
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Jimmy thanks red sox got shut out.
-kaylee
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Dam Pete Walkers **** we lost.
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ZAck-I got a question I may be going to a jays game soon who are nice guys on that team?.Or should i ask jimmy?
-kaylee
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Well from my experience in seeing the Jays tossing around cause the gates open too late to see the Jays bp, but I have gotten 3 balls from Jays pitchers. Anway heres my list.
Nice Guys
Scott Downs
Pete Walker
Gustavo Chacin
AJ Burnett
BJ Ryan (sometimes nice, but only to Jays fans)
Cassey Janssen (sometimes)
and I'm probably guessing Reed Johnson and the yound guys like Aaron Hill.
Mean Guys
Ted Lilly (not mean just doesn't toss a lotta balls)
Coaches that are really nice are Brad Arnsberg and a lot of others like Brian Butterfield, Marty Pevey.
Hope that helps, Zack probably knows more cause he actually sees the Jays in BP.
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Thank you.It will probaly not be until they go to anaheim you're talking like 2 months from now(september).I am a few months ahead.
-kaylee
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Zack- Where have you been? Watching the Mets get killed by the Pirates?
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ZAck-
O don't tell me the mets lost to the lost to the pirates who are the second worst team in the major league.Did they?
-kaylee
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They got smoked 11-1 ha!
Jays 06 champs!
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have fun beating the sox andyanks for the division
-kaylee
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BERGIN-
That's sick. Congrats on a great day. I love how you were able to meet Johan. Looking forward to hearing more...
JIMMY-
Ichiro throws lots of balls into the crowd, but I don't think he signs much. Eddie Guardado and J.J. Putz are good ball-throwers. Jarrod Washburn isn't. I don't know if Raul Ibanez throws a lot of balls, but he'll definitely hit some into the right field seats. In other news, I don't know WHAT the Mets are doing.
KAYLEE-
Jimmy gave you a good list of Jays. I can't add anyone else to it.
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ZAck-Yeah I thought Jimmy could answer me bettter on that one.
-kaylee
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This dodger game is killing me to watch....they keep drilling each other....The other team(Arizona)has plunked
Nomar three times...Warnings issued arizona has had a pitcher thrown out and the manager crazy.
-kaylee
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Three times? Yowza. I haven't heard any MLB news yet from yesterday (July 3), except for the Mets/Yankees and what's been discussed here. I've been in my own far-off ZackLand.
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What is with the mets?
They lostg to the pirates man.
-kaylee
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go get the pirates tommorrow the mets are -better then they showed yesterday(July3)
spank em like they did to you.GOOOOOO mets.now I can root for them cause they are not playing my redsox.
-kaylee
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I bet Joe Mauer could break that record. He is a star rookie and a great hitter. They want him in the lineup. He has a great arm. My other reasoning is that some manager could be reading this and say "Heck with it i'm going to put my catcher in for the whole season."
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I disagree. Mauer is so good that his manager(s) will want to rest him and keep him fresh.
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ZAck-Are themets playing today?
-kaylee
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Yes. They won. Don't forget about MLB.com. You can get the info there much quicker than I can provide it.
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mauer is gonna catch aproximately 120-130 games this year
and i doubt a managaer of a professional baseball team has the time nor the care to read this blog (no offense zack)
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zack-im getting kinda bored here. can you get to a game soon so i have something to read?
im hoping you'll get to one of the next two night's games.
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Joneli-I agree.
-kaylee
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JONELI-
I'm shocked! Shocked and offended! (Okay, not really.) I'm planning to go to Shea tomorrow. But if it rains, forget it. So we'll see. Stay tuned.
KAYLEE-
That goes double for you.
RAIN-
Eat it.
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WHAt is going on BJ is so trying to lose it for toronto
-kaylee
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This as a bad baseball night (july 4) for me.MY red sox lost,My disondbacks lost,My twins lost(to the worst team in baseball).The only brightspot is that my toronto
blue jays won though bj tried to give it up.They also picked
up a game in the division.Man it is hard rooting for 2 teams in the same divison.
-kaylee
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O yea yankees lost but that is good.For mine and Jimmy's jays Right Jimmy?
-kaylee
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Im just happy the Yanks got smoked and that Halladay didn't get injured in Texas like alst year.
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EVERYONE GO VOTE FOR LIRIANO!
http://twinslove.mlblogs.com
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He already has my vote and same with Nomar. Liriano deserves rookie of the year aswell, he's the best rookie by far, cause Papelbon is garbage.
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Zackster,
Nice list---but I beg to differ on one-Joe Dimagio's hit streak. hitting in 39 or 40 straight games is not even close to the record. Ballparks are just too small these days---This is great for HRs, but makes the bloop base hit that much harder.
http://bestblog.mlblogs.com
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CARL-
Good point about ballparks being smaller, but do you really think that makes it imPOSSible to break the record? Today's hitters do, after all, have advantages that the older guys didn't.
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Well, let's put it this way---the chances are very sliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiim.
According to Ed Purcell, a Nobel Laureate and world reknowned physicist who did a little homework on the Dimaggio matter, this is what the odds are of someone breaking the 56-game hitting streak record:
If a player was a lifetime .350 hitter (which there are only 3 of and all of them retired before 1940) he would have a 9 in 1000 chance of having a 50 game hitting streak if he played a minimum of a 1000 career games. That is a .0096 chance less than 1% chance of a 50 (not 56)-game hitting streak. The odds get discernibly worse for hitters that are less than .350 career hitters which includes the entire present major leagues.
So, YEAH it's not impossible but neither is humans living on Mars one day.
Here's a quick link to the Purcell findings which come from Stephen Jay Gould's book "Triumph and Tragedy in Mudville"
http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=43314
Thought you'd enjoy
Cabbie
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Cabbie!
Sorry for my delay in replying to this. Somehow, it just eluded me. I love it. I love putting numbers and values on things, and this is no exception. I know THE STREAK is—and will remain—extremely difficult to break, but I'm just saying that SOMEday someone will do it. Ichiro isn't that far away from .350. Plus, why can't a guy who's hitting .350 for a specific season have a shot at it? Or .394?
In any case, thanks. The debate rages on...
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