300 wins
Why is it that no one seems to think we're ever going to see another 300-game winner? Am I missing something? I mean, just about every announcer has been going on and on about it, and it's seriously annoying me. To reach 300 wins, a pitcher needs to average 15 wins per season for 20 seasons. Difficult? Yes. Impossible? No. You want impossible? Try pitching 750 complete games. That's what it would take to break Cy Young's career record.
I went to the stats page on MLB.com and did a search for active wins leaders and made my own list of guys who could win 300 games. Some obviously have a better chance than others, but if you look at the numbers and do the math, you'll see that it's not an unreachable milestone at all...

Am I crazy? Who do you think has the best shot? I'm going with Sabathia and Zambrano.

I'll go with Zambrano as well :)
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Santana for me. As far as I'm concerned, he seems like the type of guy who will play to get better and better, not for selfish reasons. I could see him playing 20 more years if you consider how medicine may advance within that time. Also, he doesn't rely on a fastball as much as a guy like Zambrano does. (But when Big Z comes to the Mets, Peterson will fix him, right?)
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I think it will be done, but obviously not for a long time.
Who the hey is Joe Slusarski!!??
CC Sabathia. He has more wins than Randy Johnson did at age 27.
--Ethan
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Hey Ethan, its Evan you still there?
Anyways I think Carlos can if he sticks with it.
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The problem is, they're all too far away to really pick. So many pitchers get injured these days. I wrote a little article about it here actually, http://sportsbytes.net/article.asp?articleid=86066
I think Sabathia is on the best pace right now.
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I really liked the article, Micheal.
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I think Zambrano for sure and MAYBE Peavy. Peavy gets hurt alot though. Glavine definitely could be the last one to do it.
Leigh
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hey z. does the 300 game stat include post season wins? if it does, then beckett could well win 10-13 more games this year. he's on target for 300 too.
PISSOT
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Hi Zack....
Your last two entries about all these milestones lately has me thinking about what milestones I've seen in person. We've had a lot here in San Diego the last few years. I've seen the following in person:
A.J. Burnett's no hitter vs SD.
Bud Smith's no hitter vs SD.
Rickey Henderson's 3000th hit.
Tony Gwynn's last hit (3141).
Sammy Sosa's 1000th hit (in Miami).
Rickey Henderson setting the all time runs record.
Rickey Henderson setting the all time walks record.
Barry Bonds' breaking the all time walks record. (Everytime he walks ha ha).
Barry Bonds hitting #755 (in my section).
Trevor Hoffman tying and breaking the all time saves record.
Mike Piazza's 400th home run.
Zack, I was curious what milestone's you have seen in person yourself in all your travels? How about the rest of you that post on here? Has anyone seen any big milestones in person? Very curious....
Leigh
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Funny about Joe Slusarski. I love it.
Yeah, it's too bad I can't post pictures, but I'll e-mail you some in a few minutes.
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Hey Zack, I'm bored, so I did the accurate math for every guy on your list. Considering they pace until they're 41 years old, here's what they have to average for the rest of their career to reach the sparkling 300:
Mussina-18 x3
Pettitte-17.6... x6
Hudson-18.7... x9
Zito-15.83... x12
Oswalt-ditto
Buehrle-14.923 x13
Sabathia-14.6429 x14
J. Santana-16.2308 x13
Zambrano-14.8 x15
Beckett-16.3571 x14
Peavy-15.46... x15
Willis-14.6875 x16
Bonderman-14.4118 x17
E. Santana-15.7059 x17
Kazmir-15 x18
Verlander-16 x17
Hernandez-13.85 x18
Olsen-15.4... x18
Hamels-15.5... x18
Slursarski-287 x1
Arithmatically, Felix has the best shot, but I would think Bonderman will have a credible chance. So Go Jeremy!
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CUBS0110-
Of course.
SLDICKINSON-
For me, the problem with Santana is that he lost several years of winning by pitching in relief, so he really would have to pitch well into his 40s to reach the magical number. Also, he's not that big of a guy, so I can see his arm wearing down quicker than that of a monster like Zambrano or Sabathia.
ETHAN-
You don't know Joe Slusarski?! When my mom was 27, I think *she* had more wins than Randy Johnson did at that age.
EVAN-
Another vote for Carlos. Yay.
CEETAR-
Great article! I suppose I should've put Pedro Martinez on the list because he does have a CHANCE. I thought about Halladay, but you're right...as good as he is, he's too far behind the pace.
LEIGH-
I've witnessed a few Bonds walks records as well. I can't remember smaller milestones (like a 1,000th hit), so my brief list would be Doc Gooden's no-hitter, Randy Winn's cycle, Jose Reyes's cycle, and John Franco's 300th save. (Ooh!) I must be forgetting a lot because I've been to over 650 games. Oh...well I also saw David Cone strike out 19 batters in one game. That was pretty **** cool. I'll keep thinking...
PISSOT-
Let's not get crazy here, and no, I'm not talking about post-season wins. Or All-Star Game wins. Or Spring Training. Or Winter Ball. Or Wiffle Ball. Sorry.
GREG-
Got the pics. Love the pics. Send me some more (if it's not too tough) and good luck tonight.
DANNY-
Nice work! That's really cool to see. I should've done this math in the first place.
EVERYONE-
I'm going to Philly today, and if the weather stays nice, I'm going to Shea tomorrow. My goal for the two games is to reach a grand total of 3,140, which means I need to get 17 balls. Ten in Philly and seven at Shea? We shall see...
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I am doing okay been having really bad chest pains lately though,but, I get admitted thursday afternoon and get the surgery friday.I dont know that with the back randy will ever get there.But we shall see.
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bravo dannyzhang! with the young ones you might as well pick names out of a hat...too many things can go wrong between now and then. i can't imagine moose or pettitte getting to 300.
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Zacker:
If Randy Johnson can stay healthy and play for at least two more seasons, it's definitely a drop in the bucket for the "Big Unit" to become the next 300 game winner in MLB...
Also, pencil in that Surfer Dude / Music Man from SF "Barry Zito", he's a keeper and has natural pitching rhythm!
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Zack, you just have to laugh at a pic like this:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/photo?slug=1f84c50e6b7b4fb58fe267872be787cc.nationals_giants_baseball_fxpb131&prov=ap
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Scott kazmir he will get 300 in a mets uniform.
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randy johnson healthy for two more seasons? yeah right.
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Zackmaster,
Wow, Doc Gooden's no hitter and David Cone's 19 strikeout game. Very cool. I forgot that I have seen 2 cycles as well. Greg Colbrun on the Diamondbacks and John Olerud on the Mariners. Both a few years ago. Has no one else on here been to any "milestone" games?
Leigh
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756*
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KAYLEE-
I'm glad to hear you're doing okay.
TSWECHTENBERG-
Good point about the young pitchers. There's no way to predict who will be able to stay healthy.
MIKE.LOS-
I don't think Randy would need two seasons. If he's healthy, he should be able to win his 16 games between April and October.
PSU532-
Umm, yeah.
RYAN-
Interesting prediction. Wouldn't surprise me.
LEIGH-
The Cone game was probably one of my first 20 games, so I didn't fully apprreciate it, unfortunately.
CUBS0110-
Sad but true.
EVERYONE-
I'm back from Philly. Good times...
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I figure Phil Hughes will have about 5 wins this year. That will put him in the running for 300 wins.
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Good point.
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